Cole Hogan: Conservatives must go big or be sent home
Transforming the country, rather than making minor adjustments, is the defining goal of our generation.
Last week, the House of Commons rose for the summer, and not a day too soon.
For many of us in Canada’s political world, this will be the first time we have had anything resembling a break in quite some time.
We chose this life, so it’s our own fault, but I know I’m not alone in saying that the last two years have been an absolute dead sprint.
In 2025, on 6 January, Justin Trudeau announced his resignation. On 27 February, Doug Ford won his third majority government in Ontario. On 9 March, Mark Carney became Liberal leader, and on 14 March he was sworn in as an unelected prime minister. On 28 April, Mark Carney became an elected prime minister with a minority government, and Pierre Poilievre lost his seat. On 18 August, Poilievre ran and won in an Alberta by-election. On 4 November, Mark Carney’s Liberals tabled their first budget, and Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor from the Conservatives to the Liberals. On 27 November, Steven Guilbeault resigned from Carney’s Cabinet. On 11 December, Michael Ma crossed the floor from the Conservatives to the Liberals.
In 2026, from 29 to 31 January, Conservatives met at their national policy convention in Calgary, and Poilievre passed a leadership review with 87.4 per cent of the vote. On 18 February, Matt Jeneroux crossed the floor from the Conservatives to the Liberals. On 29 March, Avi Lewis was elected leader of the NDP. On 8 April, Marilyn Gladu crossed the floor from the Conservatives to the Liberals. From 9 to 11 April, Liberals took a victory lap at their convention in Montreal. On 21 May, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced that Albertans would vote on whether Alberta should remain in Canada or whether the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Constitution of Canada to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada. On 30 May, the BC Conservatives elected Kerry-Lynne Findlay as their leader. On 18 June, the House rose.
These are just the main political beats; never mind the Carney government’s yet-to-materialise legislative agenda and the nobody-has-any-idea-on-any-given-day status of trade talks with the US administration. The Prime Minister gleefully jet-sets, having completely upended Canadian politics in a matter of 15 months.
This presents a dilemma for Poilievre’s Conservatives. In theory, they’re closer than ever to earning the right to form government. They gained 24 new seats and 2.5 million new votes, and secured the highest share of the vote since Brian Mulroney’s second majority term. Do they hold the line and soldier on with what got them to this point, or adjust now that we’re in Carney’s world?
Every political strategist will tell you that you can’t run the same campaign twice, even though most political operators are extremely risk-averse. When your political opponent tramples your policy territory and takes it for their own, perhaps it’s advisable to go where you can’t be followed.
According to the latest work from David Coletto’s Abacus Data, the top six issues facing Canadians right now are:
The cost of living
The economy
Health care
Housing affordability and accessibility
Donald Trump and his administration
Immigration
The Liberals lead the Conservatives, 40 per cent to 35 per cent, on the cost of living, and 42 per cent to 39 per cent on the economy. Liberals have a 16-point lead on health care and a 3-point lead on housing affordability and accessibility. Liberals have a 34-point lead on Donald Trump and his administration. Conservatives have a 34-point lead on immigration and a 27-point lead on crime and public safety, although crime and public safety is seventh on the list of the most important issues facing Canadians.
The point is that, if Conservatives are to continue building trust with Canadians and gain the extra million votes needed to form government, they must simultaneously remain competitive on economic issues while bringing greater focus to the social and cultural issues that dominate the Canadian psyche. If Conservatives lead with issues on which they’re already most trusted by the electorate, like immigration and crime and public safety, such demonstrated competence and unfiltered leadership will spill over to areas in which Conservatives are less trusted.