Anthony Meffe: Do not hold out for the American midterms
Canada's economic malaise will continue with or without a Democratic Congress.
As the Canadian government continues to accomplish nothing slowly, the Canadian economy is faltering under the weight of a decade of abysmal Liberal management and renewed trade pressure from the United States of America.
The promise of a deal with the Americans has transformed into a vague whisper of an aspiration as it becomes increasingly clear that no such resolution is in the offing. A deal by Canada Day, a deal by August, close to a deal in October, and now a year has passed and nothing has changed, aside from the tariffs worsening.
A more passive solution has presented itself to some Canadians: wait for the midterm elections and Donald Trump’s inevitable implosion to resolve our predicament. Do not hold out hope on that front.
This strategy is doomed to failure for two reasons. First, the Republicans are well-positioned to defy expectations. Second, even if the Republicans get trounced, they are unlikely to lose badly enough to help Canadians.
The party in power almost always suffers significant losses in the midterm elections, and this rule applies no matter which party one supports. Barack Obama was historically rebuked in the 2010 elections, Trump lost the House in 2018, Biden lost the House in 2022, and, going back farther, Bill Clinton lost both the House and the Senate in 1994, ushering in the ‘Gingrich Revolution’. Given this consistent pattern, it seems obvious that Trump will lose ground in the upcoming elections.
A number of trends, however, suggest Trump’s prophesied and long-expected defeat is not inevitable. This is a lesson that should already have been learned after ten years of his defying expectations. A recent Harris poll showed the generic congressional ballot at a dead heat, with 50 per cent for Democrats and 50 per cent for Republicans.
The polling comes despite Trump’s lower approval ratings. While Americans are frustrated with Trump on a number of issues, that frustration has not translated into enormous support for Democrats whose policies continue to be viewed as out of touch and excessively focused on divisive identity issues.
Trump’s low approval may signal frustration that he has not delivered on his promises quickly enough rather than an overall opposition to his agenda. It is important to note that throughout Donald Trump’s political career, his personal approval has consistently trailed the popularity of individual policies.
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